The Bay Shortage Is Bad The Shop Owner Shortage Might Be Worse [E246]
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Host: Coach Chris Cotton
“Communities are regulating repair capacity out of existence… and they still expect same-day service.”
“At some point, towns are going to run out of places to fix the cars they depend on.”
“The bay shortage isn’t just a market problem—it’s a permitting problem.”
Data/Pressure
4. “Vehicles per bay hit about 253 by 2022—and it’s projected to top 261.”
5. “More cars. More complexity. Fewer bays. That’s the squeeze.” Productivity / ‘One tech’
6. “If you want more capacity, stop hunting bays and start hunting waste.”
7. “Most shops don’t have a technician shortage. They have a productivity leak.”
8. “Every owner knows the one technician I’m talking about.”
9. “Imagine every shop releasing one dead-weight tech back into the pool—suddenly half the industry improves.”
Owner shortage
10. “You don’t have a capacity problem—you have a leadership pipeline problem.”
11. “The technician shortage hurts production. The shop owner shortage threatens the industry.”
Consolidation / Collision
12. “Collision repair is showing us the future: consolidation accelerates when succession fails.”
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Transcript
This is the Automotive Repair Podcast Network.
Speaker B:It's your weekly blitz with Chris keeping
Speaker A:you in the game.
Speaker A:Hey, what's up, everybody?
Speaker A:Coach Chris Cotton here.
Speaker A:And welcome back to the weekly Blitz.
Speaker A:I want to start today with a question that sounds simple, but it should scare every shop owner listening.
Speaker A:Where are people going to get their vehicles repaired five and ten years from now?
Speaker A:Because we've talked a lot about the technician shortage and I've been beating the drum for a long time on the repair base shortage.
Speaker A:But here's a twist that I hadn't fully anticipated and or appreciated until recently.
Speaker A:I read an article in Shop Owner magazine by Andrew Markle.
Speaker A:And in the magazine, in this article, it says we're not just having a base shortage, we're having a shop owner shortage.
Speaker A:And if you want the why, I'll give it to you in one line.
Speaker A:Bays don't build themselves, shops don't run themselves, and communities don't magically make room for repair capacity.
Speaker A:Let's break it down and get into it just a little bit.
Speaker A:Here's what I believe is the math that matters.
Speaker A:There was a marketing summary published by Aftermarket Matters, and it talked about the trend.
Speaker A: In: Speaker A: In: Speaker A:And Lang, the people that did the study projected that it's going to top at 261 here pretty closely.
Speaker A:And the reason why is bays keep declining while vehicle numbers keep rising.
Speaker A:You know, if you feel like you're constantly behind, you're not imagining it.
Speaker A:But the bottleneck isn't just we need more bays.
Speaker A:And here's what I believe the public doesn't see a lot.
Speaker A:And I don't think people in our cities pay enough attention to this.
Speaker A:And by city, I mean city government.
Speaker A:Sorry, a lot of towns and cities make it hard to add repair capacity.
Speaker A:You know, auto repair and especially collision body work often gets classified as something that requires extra approvals, conditional use permits, special permits, hearings, restrictions, conditions.
Speaker A:You know, you can literally see this in municipal documents where auto body repair facilities are listed as, you know, use a subject to a conditional use permit.
Speaker A:And then so you add the real world layer to this.
Speaker A:You know, neighbors don't want car stuff near them, planning meetings turn into a circus, we have hazardous chemicals, time drags on, costs go up, and entrepreneurs and would be shop owners just say forget it.
Speaker A:So even outside auto repair, specifically, you know, research on land use permitting points out that uncertainty and complexity can make building new repair shops prohibitively Risky and costly.
Speaker A:Which is exactly what kills new facility development.
Speaker A:And the irony is those same communities still expect instant repairs.
Speaker A:They still don't understand why they call the dealership and they say they're three weeks out.
Speaker A:Nobody's connecting the dots.
Speaker A:And at some point people are going to run out of places to fix the cars that everybody needs to go to get to work.
Speaker A:School, life and adventure.
Speaker A:One of the things I think is productivity is the pressure relief valve, right?
Speaker A:I think Cecil said this and I've been talking about it, but I think Cecil put the number into it.
Speaker A:If every shop in America increased productivity by 10%, we wouldn't have a technician issue.
Speaker A:Technician shortage.
Speaker A:Whether the exact number's 10 or 12%, the points rock solid.
Speaker A:The fastest way to create capacity is not adding bays, it's extracting wasted time from the bays you already have.
Speaker A:If every shop owner looked at their staff and reduced the technicians by one, you know which one.
Speaker A:That tech goes back into the pool and becomes the number two tech at another shop.
Speaker A:Maybe, I don't know.
Speaker A:I think one toxic unproductive tech can eat more leadership time than three solid ones.
Speaker A:Those people clog workflow, they kill morale and force hero mode management.
Speaker A:You know, the shop has a tech, but it doesn't have capacity.
Speaker A:You know, one thing I would say is the industry doesn't just have a shortage of technicians.
Speaker A:It has a surplus of technicians who are in the wrong seat in the wrong shop, under the wrong leadership or just aren't producing.
Speaker A:Also, shop owners are not getting into training.
Speaker A:You know, these things help us correct process.
Speaker A:They help dispatch, they help approvals, help workflow discipline and leadership expectations.
Speaker A:Productivity isn't a technician issue, it's a management system issue and we have to work into it together.
Speaker A:Now let's move back into the shop owner shortage a little bit.
Speaker A:So if we're connecting dots, if zoning and permitting slows new facilities and productivity is the only near term relief, then who coordinates all of it?
Speaker A:It's down to the owners, operators and leaders.
Speaker A:But fewer people want this job because modern ownership includes HR and culture, software and data marketing and reputation compliance and equipment complexity across EV, ADAS, diagnostics, etc.
Speaker A:And the personal weight of carrying payroll every week.
Speaker A:So now it's not just weaning tax, it's where is the next generation of owners going to come from to build shops worth inheriting.
Speaker A:Let's talk consolidation a minute and what it's doing in the collision industry?
Speaker A:There was a collision industry article called Focus Advisors.
Speaker A: plus locations in: Speaker A: o, Focus Advisors in February: Speaker A:Also not notes, the top four consolidators collectively represent 32% or more of total industry revenues.
Speaker A:Collision shows what happens when complexity rises, equipment cost jumps, insurers pressure speed and consistency, and scale wins.
Speaker A:I think that's the biggest thing.
Speaker A:When your collision group is as big as an insurance company, then you can start pushing them back and poking them in the chest and being like, hey, not so fast buddy.
Speaker A:That's when scale wins.
Speaker A:You know, mechanical isn't identical, but it rhymes, right?
Speaker A:And here's your tie in Consolidation is what the market does when independent succession fails.
Speaker A:And that's where we're at.
Speaker A:We are failing independent succession at this point.
Speaker A:If the owner shortage accelerates, consolidation doesn't slow down, it speeds up everybody.
Speaker A:Let's take a quick break.
Speaker A:If bays are tight and capacity matters, the last thing you need is garbage leads clogging your schedule.
Speaker A:That's why I only trust shop marketing pros.
Speaker A:They help shops attract better customers.
Speaker A:The ones who value expertise, approve work and respect your process.
Speaker A:Because when bays are limited, marketing has to be smarter.
Speaker A:Less chaos.
Speaker A:Better car count.
Speaker A:Higher aro.
Speaker A:More.
Speaker A:More.
Speaker A:Yes, shop marketing pros.
Speaker A:Tell them Chris Cotton sent you.
Speaker A:Here's the takeaway.
Speaker A:The bay shortage is bad.
Speaker A:The shop owner shortage might be worse.
Speaker A:Because even if we solve technician recruiting and if we solve productivity, if we don't solve succession, leadership development, and the community level reality that it's getting harder to build repair capacity, we're going to watch the bottleneck tighten until customers have nowhere to go.
Speaker A:Thanks for listening to the Weekly Blitz.
Speaker A:Shout out to the Aftermarket Radio Network.
Speaker A:I want you to go out and check out the other great shows on that network.
Speaker A:This is Coach Chris Cotton.
Speaker A:I want you to keep building people.
Speaker A:That's how we're going to build capacity.
Speaker A:Have a great day everybody, and remember to always rise and grind.
Speaker B:You've been listening to the Weekly Blitz with Chris Cotton on the Automotive Repair Podcast Network.
Speaker B:Download our exclusive podcast app at automotive repair podcastnetwork.com because the best conversations in the industry start here.
Speaker B:Want expert advice on running your shop?
Speaker B:Well, Chris is listening.
Speaker B:Check the show notes for his email and send him your topics.
